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BuyMeta

Model your risk before it models you

Put in your account size, risk per trade, win rate and reward-to-risk. See your expectancy, your drawdown risk and whether your size is safe. Runs in your browser. No account, no card, no call.

Your rules

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Positive expectancy of 0.35R per trade at a defensible size.
Expectancy per trade
0.35R
$87.50
Expected per month
$1,750
84.0% a year
Risk of 50% drawdown
0.0%
Dollars at risk per trade
$250

Position size versus Kelly

Full Kelly maximises growth and is far too volatile to trade. Half-Kelly is the practical ceiling.

You are risking1.0%
Half Kelly (ceiling)8.8%

The losing streak you should plan for

Over 240 trades a year, a 10-trade losing streak is likely at 95% confidence. At 1.0% per trade that is a 9.6% drawdown — and it says nothing about whether the system is broken.

Take this with you

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BuyMeta — risk model
· 0.35R expectancy at 45.0% win rate, 2R payoff
· 1.0% per trade vs 8.8% half-Kelly ceiling
· Plan for a 10-trade losing streak (9.6% drawdown)

Run it yourself: https://buymetatoken.com
Not financial advice. This is arithmetic on numbers you supplied. It models no real account, predicts no outcome, and does not account for slippage, fees, gaps or correlated positions. Trading involves risk of total loss.

Model your risk before it models you

Put in your account size, risk per trade, win rate and reward-to-risk. See your expectancy, your drawdown risk and whether your size is safe. Runs in your browser. No account, no card, no call.

Open the free tool

It runs in your browser. BuyMeta never sees your inputs.